Saturday, March 26, 2011

Howard Davidowitz: nothing works without employment

Henry Blodget recently interviewed Howard Davidowitz for Tech Ticker.  I've seen tens of interviews done with Davidowitz and to say he's charismatic might be an understatement but smart people will see this as sincerity and look right through all the wild tones and emotionalism he displays.  Davidowitz is not an idiot.  Quite the opposite.  I like the guy and I think he speaks truthfully, at least from his perspective, which is all that I can ask from any man.  At the same time, I don't think his views are 100% accurate.  IMO the things he is right about are:
  • The problem is government "programs" (AKA entitlements).
  • Obama trying to solve a debt problem with a healthcare bill which takes us into more debt.  Yes, that's right, Obamacare is about money, not health.  Obama doesn't give a crap about anyone's health except his own.  He's a politician.  It's all about money and power and to believe otherwise is just the tiniest bit naive.
  • The biggest exposure for the US is the dollar (whether via inflation or deflation) and the stock market is on thin ice.
  • We are borrowing 43 cents of every federal dollar we are spending.  Forty Three Cents!
  • Stimulus is not working.  We have increased our debt exponentially and diluted our money supply ($37 silver recently...).  Mish told us long ago and so did Ron Paul and Peter Schiff and Marc Faber and Bob Prechter and just about every other smart money person out there: Stimulus is can-kicking only.  It is not a cure.  It delays the symptoms but they will come back even worse the next time.

Things Davidowitz doesn't understand or doesn't want to say:
  • He wants to get rid of Bush tax cuts to increase tax revenue and cut the entitlement programs big time.  He claims this will not crush the economy.  I say balderdash.  Those programs inject money into the economy and without them we will get a massive deflationary crash.  I'm not saying we should continue those things, only that they will result in a massive crash.   Then again, staying the course will be even worse as massive inflation wrecks the dollar (and our savings with it).  People need to wake up to the fact that there is no soft landing from these levels of debt.  We are as bankrupt as bankrupt can be and that carries consequences that have to be dealt with at some point.
  • He says everyone from all over the world would come running to invest in the US.  I say balderdash because who exactly has all this money?  Euroland is broke.  China is a massive housing bubble and they have to keep spending on housing or jobs will collapse and the people will hang their leaders in the streets.  Japan had a debt to GDP ratio of 220%.  It was screwed before the earthquakes, tsunami and Chernobl 2.0.  Now it is just doubly screwed.  Smart people will move out of Japan and become less xenophobic.  Africa has no money and never did.  Canada and Australia housing markets are rolling over and their housing bubble was bigger than the USA's.  They will have to look internally and spend internally to keep their economic Ponzis supported.  Mexico is having running gun battles in the streets.  So Who is Davidowitz talking about investing in the US, South America?  They can barely save themselves.  The bottom line is that the US is too big to bail. 
  • There is no painless fix.  A crash will eventually happen no matter who is in charge.  We have run up a big debt Ponzi and the only thing that austerity measures will do is collapse it.  So Obama and the other powers that be are just stalling and kicking the can down the road as long as they can hoping that Euroland will collapse first so our politicians can blame the ensuing chain reaction "contagion" on someone else.  Obama inherited an unfixable situation.  Did he make it worse?  Of course.  Every president from now on has to increase the debt exponentially or the Ponzi will collapse.  That's just how Ponzis work.  Who wants to be the guy in charge when it collapses?  Nobody.  Why?  Because they will have to take unfair levels of blame just because it happened on their watch.  Nixon went down in history as the guy who closed the gold window but the damage was being done by Kennedy and others that went before him.  Because of this they will all keep the Ponzi running until it collapses of its own corrupt weight at some point in the not too distant future.
I praise Davidowitz for speaking out.  Too many cowards and con men know the truth and are just hanging back, saying nothing, waiting for the collapse.  They don't care what happens to people and so they don't bother sounding the alarm.  They consider it natural economic selection.  People with a real economic understanding will come through just fine.  Everyone else will get creamed.  Simple as that.  If you want to ensure your financial future, the answer is simple: dollar cost average into gold and silver over time because this takes you out of the dollar debt Ponzi.  If you don't play, you can't lose everything.  Don't do it all at once because you might buy a peak.  Don't panic into metals!  Do it on a measured, regular basis over a period of years and you will do just fine economically.
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