Sunday, July 24, 2011

Lots of good Euro-bond charts in one place tells the story.

Mish has a recent update on the 2 year sovereign debt interest rates for the PIIGS.  Just scroll down and look at the charts quickly.  Note the absolute interest rates (which compare to credit card interest rates for someone with poor credit) as well as the shape of the charts (which indicate that the problems are getting worse, not better).  The proper way to think about bond rate charts is that they are inverse indicators of trust of government.  The higher these charts go, the less trust people have in governments.  When trust falls to a certain level, the people revolt.  Why make it more complicated than it really is?  Debt based government spending of any kind is a con and no con game lasts forever.

While not pretty, it's entirely expected and predicted.  Bond holders are demanding un-payably high interest rates on government debt which means that any time debt is rolled over it will go from last year's low rate of 3-5% depending on the country we are talking about to something in the range of 10-30%.  No EU country is immune from this.  First the PIIGS will default and then the con men of Germany and France will have to admit that their economies were only strong because of debt based purchases (AKA vendor finance scam) by PIIGS. 

Sooner or later it will find its way back home to the king of the debt con which is the USA.  Count on it.  More importantly, prepare for it.  There will come a time of global turbulence where such preparations will be worth their weight in, well, gold.
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