Tuesday, August 14, 2012

S+P 500 looking ready to roll over

One of the most ominous chart formations I know of is the double top.  The S+P 500 has to decide very soon whether it is going to break out into new inflation driven high or break down into a deflationary crash.  The market is likely just waiting for Bernanke to make his next move before committing to one outcome or the other.  If Bernanke decides not to throw more newly printed cash into the market place then look out below.  Why?  Because this declining double top will have formed waves 1 and 2 of an Elliott wave sequence which means the next move would be a 3rd wave.  That means big time downward gaps that take everyone by surprise so that they say "we never saw it coming".

Personally, I think the odds favor a big time market sell off here.  The news around the world isn't just "not good".  No, the truth is more like "it sucks really bad".  China exports are collapsing.  France moved its top tax rate to 75 freaking percent!  Yeah, that will spur their best and brightest into taking more risk, right?  The EU is looking at Germany's trade surplus of 6% and telling them that punitive action will be taken if they don't "fix it" (i.e. buy more stuff from other countries in the euro-Ponzi). 

So the only lesson that people are going to hear is that it is open season on the rich and the highly productive elements of society.  Folks, that strategy never worked before and it won't work this time.  Governments who play this game are using their power to remain in office for a few more months with promises that screwing the rich people will right their ships.  Besides, "rich" business owners didn't really build those businesses anyway, right Obama?  In fact nobody should get any credit for anything unless the government is right there with them taking the lion's share of the credit and the profits.

What the greedy bureaucrats are really doing is selling the people of the country down the river in the medium and long term.  When the smart, productive people leave, who will provide for the fat, lazy, stupid people and the bureaucrats that remain?  The whole purpose of one world government will be to ensure that there is no place to run when government gets desperate like this.  But since we don't have the new world oder (sic) yet there are still plenty of places for the rich and intelligent people to flee to.  Expect a lot of fleeing to happen from the EU over the next few years.

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