Saturday, August 10, 2013

Netflix at important technical juncture

I won't belabor the point: the Netflix chart looks like a perfect setup for shorts.  A textbook ending diagonal has formed (but not yet been confirmed).  IF it is confirmed (by breaking down below the lower support line, and then rising into a failed test of that support line from below), NFLX shares could be in for a huge pounding.  I think it is going to happen but of course I would wait for confirmation of the breakdown before betting anything on it.

From a fundamentals perspective, Netflix shares are a huge speculative bubble.  Again, I won't spend more time here detailing it but reverse PE is 314, forward PE is 76, price/book is 13 and change and price/sales is 3.75.  These numbers all remind me of dot bomb valuations.

The NFLX chart is very worrisome, or it should be to anyone who spends any time looking at charts.  It doesn't mean it has to collapse but it does mean the odds favor that outcome big time.  But again, this is not confirmed until the lower trend line breaks down (which could be as soon as next week from the look of things).

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