Tuesday, November 5, 2013

My EW model says GE shares have peaked and that it now enters a massive bear market.

In my first post on GE  which was posted 10-22-2013, I reported that its chart was nearing the parallel resistance line that should mark the end of its Fed-Fueled bull run which has taken place since Bernanke started dropping money from helicopters in 2009.  I reminded people that GE is little more than a massive shadow bank posing as a manufacturer.

I've been watching the chart approach that invisible down sloping resistance line which, when hit, would indicate that the D wave is complete.  With the completion of the last 5 wave move up as shown in the charts below, I believe that GE has now peaked.  Note that this chart suggests that the chart just completed a 5 wave reverse ending diagonal (wizard's sleeve) which had a failed 5th  (E) wave.  This pattern is very likely to be the top of the chart but it is possible that what I have labeled as e below is really just a of e.  In that case, the recent move down to 26.25 would be b of e and then c of e would be one more wave that could potentially reach or even exceed the upper green resistance line of the wizard's sleeve.

This model will be validated if any of the following occur:
  • The chart just breaks down below the lower b-d support line below.
  • The chart goes up and kisses the a-c resistance line and then falls below b-d.
  • The chart goes up and breaks out of the a-c resistance line for a very short time and then falls back into the channel and then falls below b-d.
Time will tell but I think what we are probably seeing is a pair of owl ears that form a declining double top.   Note that there is nothing whatsoever in GE's headlines that would indicate GE shares are about to turn around.  My model is based on the chart pattern and nothing else.

Also note that I freely admit that trying to call things to nearly the minute like this inherently reduces the odds of them happening.  I do it in the name of financial entertainment, nothing more.  If I were trading this I might wait for one of the confirmations I mentioned before risking any assets.  By the way, the VIX is ridiculously low right now at 13.27.  Couple that with an ask price of only 11 cents on the Jan 15 $13 puts and you could, with a few hundred bucks, walk away with a nice chunk of change if these shares collapse like I think they will.  I suspect these options will go up 5000% or more (50x).



 

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