Friday, December 27, 2013

Opinion: Time to go long OPTT

I just read a flashing sign on the Texas tollway on my way home.  It said "tolls changing soon".  "Changing" is code for "going up".  Again.  I guess a "25 to 50%" increase at the start of 2013 was not enough.  Postage rates are going up in 2014 as well.  Yep, all that money that Bernanke gifted to the elite who have been on a massive buying binge of high end crap is starting to trickle into the economy.  Google around and you will find that huge sums have been spent on ultra high end jewelry, paintings, you name it.  It's as if they can't get rid of their cash fast enough.  They are looking for hard assets to dump their ill begotten gains in and they have probably been told by their benefactor Ben Bernanke NOT to buy gold or silver lest it shorten the remaining time left to the con men to steal from the rest of us.
 
The big lie has been that monies added to the federal reserve balance sheet via QE have been sequestered from the economy.  Sounds good on paper and many fools repeat it in defense of the status quo.  But if it really was so benign then why do it at all?  No folks, it's adding money to the economy all right, just not your and my economy.   It's adding to the economy of the hyper rich.  Just because you don't know how it works does not mean it isn't happening!  When a deal is going down in Vegas and you don't know who the patsy is then it's YOU.  And we are definitely living in Virtual Vegas these days.

So I will clue you in on how the con goes.  The banks were capital impaired.  They had some dodgy assets on their books which were ruining their capital ratios to the point where they could not lend more money.  So Bernanke bought trillions of dollars of their crap with money printed from thin air so that these toxic assets could be removed from the economy.  With newfound capital from Ben (since he traded their bad investments for new dollars), the banks were supposed to loan more money.

But the banks couldn't find more people who wanted to borrow and the ones that they could find were deadbeats who were horrible credit risks.  So the bankers took their new lending ability and lent it into the markets.  This caused the markets to rise in lock step with the margin debt that the banks were and are underwriting.  Don't believe me?  Then why do the markets seem to track the margin debt so well and who is underwriting all of this debt?  It takes banking services to do this.


Source: http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/markets/nyse-margin-debt.html?NYSE-margin-debt-SPX-since-1995.gif

So, yes Virginia, the fed is pumping money into the economy via the back door.  The post office knows about it which is why they are raising their rates.  The Texas tollway system knows about it too.  Fast food workers know about it and they want a doubling of pay to $15 per hour.  I'm just not sure how much longer the fed is going to be able to keep a lid on this but I do know that no con ever ran forever and no, it's not going to be different this time.

Toward the end of these big credit runs, the big players get too over bloated and so money trickles down into the microcaps.  Once such is OPTT (Ocean Power Technologies).  As commodity prices rise their services become more valuable.  I will save you the whole story about fundamentals because all I really care about is the chart.  I mean, how can anyone really blather on about fundamentals when the fed has distorted the crap out of every market on the whole planet?

In any case, I think the shares have probably bottomed into a 2nd wave here which means the 3rd wave should be on its way real soon now.  With pure crap stocks like DRYS breaking out, OPTT can't be that far off either.  During the blow off days of a credit Ponzi, these small players can make incredible runs  in incredibly short time frames.  The OPTT chart suggests to me that a strong move up could be coming soon.

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