Friday, December 27, 2013

S+P 500 topping watch update

I've been on topping watch for the broader markets for several months now.  The markets responded to this by continuing upward.  I think now would be another very good time to look at a major top being put in.  The tapering has spooked the markets even though they are not showing the fear.  It is a nervous calm that seems to me to be more an attempt to wait until the holidays are over before the carnage starts than anything.

I suspect, nay, predict a big sell off will happen in January and that the indices will end up solidly lower during this first and critical month of the year.  When that happens we will start hearing about "January theory" or "reverse January effect".  Supposedly the history says that if stocks are up in January then they will be up for the whole year and if they are down in January then they will be down for the whole year.

The herd hasn't panicked for a long time.  It is unnatural.  Expect panic soon.  The VXX will tell you that it is happening.

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