Tuesday, January 28, 2014

As modeled, Mr. Market takes a huge bite out of Apple

For a couple weeks now I have been warning about Apple's stock chart: first here, then here and most recently here.  If you are confused about the recent beat down of AAPL shares then you owe it to yourself to go read those posts in full.  The model fully predicted this breakdown and, sadly for AAPL shareholders, more to come.  It cannot be shrugged off as luck or chance because the reasons for making the predictions were not done on gut instinct but rather in line with the rules of Elliott wave analysis.  I have noticed that during times of stress the market becomes very Elliott wave conformant.  So I expect this to be the case during the coming collapse as well.

Here is the current chart.  The green line was the quickly modeled next move, the red is what actually happened.  The blue line is the model's future prediction.  These are meant to show the approximate shape and direction of the graph.  This first breakdown is a confirmation of my model and should not be ignored.  I would sell any sucker' bounces that you might be lucky enough to get at this point.  Again, not advice, just what I would do (am doing).


More importantly, this harsh treatment shows how the shares were priced for perfection and what happens when perfection is not achieved.  No bad news will be ignored anymore as it has been ignored for the entire time that the Bernanke put was in place.  That's right.  The real news is not that AAPL took a dump here as modeled but rather that it has market wide implications.  "Wall St darlings" are having to put out or get out.  No more free lunches.  And it will be increasingly difficult to deliver the goods going forward.  That applies to everyone from "untouchable JNJ (whose stock chartI have been watching with interest) to PCLN and to even IBM.  The coming collapse is all about credit deflation, not company performance.  Stop letting stock salesmen misdirect you with their magick (sic).  What matters in a debt Ponzi Pumped market is the level of margin debt and that is controlled by interest rates which are now on an upward trend.

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