Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Within a day or two of a significant a top on Google

Everyone is all upbeat on Google right now.  You don't hear any negative peep about it in the news and the chat boards are all positive. If they only knew.  Google might well have peaked today @ $1138.92  Alternatively it could pop another $5-$10 but this is close enough not to try to split hairs much further.

I first posted about GOOG on Dec 12th in this post.  My theme was that people flying Google airlines should start getting their parachutes on because my wave model predicted an ending diagonal.  In the large portion of the composite chart below you can see that today the 5th rail bump happened.  Maybe it will get a small throw over.  The 10 minute inset at the bottom should be a perfect 5 wave EW move to finish off the ending diagonal.  The 1 minute chart in the upper right shows that either all 5 waves completed in a tiny little ending diagonal OR that was really a 4th wave triangle and now wave 5 is in progress.

In fact, probably the latter since it broke back into the channel.  If this is the case then It will peak at maybe $1145 or $1150 but then it will likely reverse itself in the middle of the trading day and break back down below the lower support of that tiny little 4th wave.


I like the June 2014 $840 puts that are going for $4.20 at the ask.  The VIX is so low right now that these options are waaaay underpriced.  I expect those puts to become 7-10x more expensive before March.  Of course, options are for total gamblers and I would never recommend them to anyone.  I will buy some myself however.  A double whammy exists in that the shares are peaking while the VIX is too complacent.  That will goose the already high multiplier effect of this play.

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