Monday, February 3, 2014

TVIX is seriously interesting for those wanting fast action.

I do not recommend using too much cash on it but for those who want super fast action and who have nerves of steel and some kind of system to let them know when they have made a mistake (like EW), TVIX (triple VIX) is seriously interesting.  It is basically a bet on a basket of short term put options. It is thus a bet against the broader market. The shorter maturities are why it moves so rapidly.  It is also why it will bleed value rapidly if the broader market is going sideways. 

TVIX is ONLY good for situations where you think rapid moves are going to be made.  It is IDEAL for 3rd waves where gaps in the broader markets can make the short term options move very, very rapidly.  It should be used with caution, just like a short term option.  The value of it IMO is that it is far more liquid than an option so if you make a mistake you don't lose all your money, you get stopped out by a trigger.  

I model TVIX as currently at or near finishing a 3rd wave right now.  Thus, I expect a "sideways" pullback (given that wave 2 was a vee pullback) before getting a nice 5th wave up.  This 5th wave could be very strong because the size of 1 and 3 are about equal right now.  One of the 5 waves of an EW impulse is often extended so if 1st or 3rd wasn't extended then 5th has good odds of being the extended wave. 

There are no guarantees in this gambling pit that we call the stock market, there are only odds and trigger points.  My view of the EW model says that the odds favor TVIX seeing a small pullback as shown to the 4th wave before moving up another 25% into wave 5.  Then the model expects a pullback to the prior 4th.  IF that holds then the next move up will LIKELY be a screamer: 60-80% up into a massive 3rd wave.

IF the pullback goes below the blue horizontal line then I need to rethink the model.  That is the trigger point.  So the goal is to buy as close to the trigger as the market action will allow and then set stops a couple % below the trigger after the shares begin moving up again so you can go about your life for the rest of the day.

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