Thursday, February 27, 2014

Two likely next steps for metals and miners

After the latest move in metals and miners we are now at a significant inflection point.  Will the chart of metals and miners (USLV being today's proxy for these sectors) bounce up once more or break support of the lower trend line and head for the bottom of the channel again.


It's the shape of the 15 minute chart which leaves me with questions.  It has decided to end the day with just 3 clear waves down.  This could turn out to be a-b-c which would mean another trip to the top of the channel before turning around and breaking back down or the rally could enter confirmed pullback mod simply by breaking down below $56.  In either case I think we end up seeing a bottom channel throw under so be careful about buying the next put up to $70, especially if it gaps up a big part of that distance leaving you buying into the teeth of the reversal.  I believe the reversal will be sudden in order to trap as many people as possible who are trying to buy the breakout (panic buying).


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