Monday, March 3, 2014

Markets likely to close at low of day as inverse ETF prepare to bounce.

FAZ looks like it has finished its ending diagonal.  It had a 5th wave throw under, then a rapid push back into the channel with 5 small waves so far.  The 3rd of that first set had a large gap in it, just as we would expect for a 3rd wave.  The bullish FAZ move was able to break out of the top of the ending diagonal on the first wave and now appears to be backtesting it from above.   Given the 5 strong waves up so far, the best model says that blue 1 has finished, blue 2 is in progress.

Blue 2 can hold at the top rail or it can fall back to the level of the prior red 4.   Either is bullish as it sets up blue 3 which will be a powerful early 3rd wave according to this model.  FAZ is not going up like that unless the broader markets pull back hard.  I expect the Dow, S+P and $COMPX all to close at the low of the day.

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