Thursday, March 6, 2014

Metals update

We are still on track for an ending diagonal finish with metals, USLV being the proxy below.


Still, we have to watch for the unexpected.  Perhaps the Ukrainian situation starts to get ugly.  Perhaps that is what spooks stocks down from their Ponzi Peaks.  War is the one thing that is most likely to decouple metals from stocks with metals and other safe haven assets going up and paper assets of all kinds going down.  A really ugly war would do it.  I don't hope for it but it generally is what happens when the debt pushers are allowed to go crazy as we have done over the past 40 years.  Massive default is politically destablizing.

Here is the zoom in of the red circle above.  It shows in better detail how the chart has been following the long term resistance trend line.  This looks to me like a stock looking for weakness in the defenses, probing the front lines as it were, trying to determine if there is a price where massive buying will step in and gap up and cause a break out.

If the hard downsloping trend line breaks out, I would buy it and then wait to see if it falls back or not.  If it does it can always be re-sold quickly but the chances that this morphs away from the ending diagonal are increased because of the war posture that Russia has started.

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