Friday, March 14, 2014

Mind blowing stuff.

I am a big fan of the concept of the fractal and interconnected nature of the universe.  I think people are part of the universe, connected to it.  Just because we normally can't perceive this connection does not mean that the connection isn't there.  I think the universe is based on fractals and waves and math in general.  These things represent order and order indicates intelligence.  If someone told me that the entire universe is a sentient being whose neurons were the galaxies and whose connective dendrites and synapses are formed by worm holes generated by the super massive black holes around which galaxies revolve then I would not blink an eye.  If this sounds outlandish to you, how crazy is it that you or I even exist.  The level of complexity in our systems is not random. Truly random systems do not work very well or very long.

Most people might have heard about the solar sunspot cycle.  About every 11 years, the sun cycles between having high sunspot activity and low sunspot activity.  Perhaps just as interesting is the fact that intelligent, credible people like Prechter have noted that there is a relationship between stock market highs and lows that corresponds with the solar cycle.  When I first read about this is Prechter's book, "Conquer The Crash", I could not bring myself to believe that there was any real relationship there.  But I tucked it away given that Prechter is not a futurist but rather a data-intensive historian.  He is not guessing there might turn out to be a measurable relationship between sun spot cycles and stock market cycles but rather showing us that he has already measured that there is a relationship indicated in the historical data.  In fact, he indicated that it factored into his Dot Bomb crash call back in the September 2000 edition of his paid subscription newsletter, "The Elliott Wave Theorist".

 As you can see from the picture at left, the last cycle bottomed in 2009.  Coincidentally, that was also the bottom of the last crash of the stock markets.  Then the markets picked up steam again to the point where they are again today peaking.  Coincidentally again, the sun spot count is peaking.  These coincidences have apparently been going on for some time while the sleepy population, well, slept.

The chart below is a time correlated over-under comparison chart of the S+P 500 and the sun spot cycle chart.  Look at how well these align during the past 2 decades.  Just another coincidence I guess.  Apparently the double top of the solar cycle is somewhat unusual and it somehow accounts for the lower peak than last time according to the NASA guy (Pesnell) quoted in the YouTube link I just provided on the subject.  You will note that Pesnell expected a double peak, one in 2013 and one in 2015.  Well, we got one in 2012 and one that is likely currently near peak.  Just like the stock markets are likely near a peak.  Just another coincidence I guess.



So if any of this really makes any sense then lets try to put a wave count on the sun spot chart since the 2009 lows. As you can see below, it is not just a close fit but rather an exact EW count fit.  Those pesky coincidences just keep on piling up.  It is very clear that we are now in the 5th wave of a 5th of a 5th of a 5th as counted by the black, blue, red and green wave counts.  We will know that it is over when the wave suddenly falls back down into the body of the ending diagonal and then the confirmation will be when it breaks down below lower support.

Some of you are laughing right now.  Others rolling their eyes.  OK, I understand the skepticism.  That's why I am putting it in writing in my blog.  I have never deleted any post and I never will.  This is in here as long as Google hosts these.  So when I come back in 3months, 6 months, 1 year and we find that the EW played out in a manner similar to expected, what will you say then?  Lucky?  Another coincidence?  Or will you start figuring out that we humans do not know everything like we sometimes think we do?  My hope is that you will see that there is order to the universe and that it only appears chaotic to those who cannot see broadly enough.

1 comment:

Chance_Nation said...

Captain,

Excellent post! I've had some exposure to the sunspot/market cycle data from guys like Prechter and Dent. You laid it out in a very straightforward and compelling fashion. Data like this can't be ignored. Maybe some day it will be disproved or amended, but for now it can't be dismissed. I've always been drawn to the interconnectedness/intelligence argument in terms of a kind of rational deism, somewhere in the realm of Spinozist thought. Thanks for another thought provoking post.

Cheers,

Chance

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