Sunday, March 16, 2014

Watching both sides of silver using ZSL

I have recently made several posts showing that metals are at a very, very important inflection point.  Those all look at the data from the long side either via the metals themselves or the miners.  But I would be remiss not to show the flip side of the picture.  For this I will use ZSL, the 2x daily bear silver ETF.

ZSL reveals the real possibility that silver has another significant wave down before it hits the bottom.  If this chart plays out as an expanding triangle as shown by the rising red model then it suggests an other big wave down for the metals and the miners.  It just so happens that a line drawn through the two initial lows circled in blue runs as support right under the inclining double bottom up and to the right.

This lower support line is going to either bounce here and provide more pain for the miners and metals or it will break down and then likely back test from below before heading down again (in which case metals and miners will be back in a bull market again.

So again, we have a metals ground hog day on our hands and the stakes here are high.  If the chart holds support here it will likely bounce all the way to the top of the channel and then throw over.  I have no problem making money on the short side of the metals if it is the will of the herd to wind the spring down even harder.  If this is to be the case I would expect the move to be fast and furious, perhaps in synch with a broader market crash.

In truth, silver is not getting more or less valuable.  It is the dollar that is fluctuating wildly vs other world currencies as the end of the fake money system draws near. The US is still the best looking horse in the glue factory and we still have the power to print money without interest rates going nuts.  Our national debt will never be repaid but as long as we can act like we plan to do it then sheeple will believe.

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