Tuesday, April 1, 2014

UUP chart suggests dollar strength might be happening soon.

The dollar has been sliding downward since Bernanke turned on the QE spigot back in 2009.  As a result of the weakening dollar, money piled out of cash and into other paper assets.  But all good things must end and I'm starting to see an inverted owl in the dollar chart.  And it only makes sense: with the fraudulent Bretton Woods system, there is no absolute value for the currency.  It's all relative to how big a scam the competing currencies are.  There is so much debt in the world trying to find a home that it needs a large heatsink to absorb this "hot money".  By piling into fake paper money, this debt saves itself from true market discovery of its value.  That;s why the dollar will be getting stronger: global panic will chase that debt into the dollar as other global currencies melt down.

How so??  Well, as long as the IOUs are denominated in ethereal terms you can just imagine that it still has the buying power of its face value.  In other words, if someone owes you $150k today you can roughly say that they owe you 3 pseudo-luxury cars or 1 modest home near a big city, etc.   Of course, if the hundreds of trillions of dollars had to actually be converted into real stuff - hard assets instead of paper promises - then their true buying power would be discovered and it would be a LOT less than the current notational value of all that debt would suggest.  Why??  Because as the debt is traded to people for hard assets, the new flood of "money" (which are just debt notes) chases up the price of the real, hard assets.  This is the basic principle behind von Mises' "crackup boom".  At some point the people decide that the promises implied by the paper notes are worth nothing and so they trade the notes for ANYTHING because something is always better than nothing.


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