Thursday, June 12, 2014

Interesting stopping place at today's close for the DJIA

There is no way I would expect anything except a 3rd wave to be able to break down that top rail.  So I think Wed's close was actually wave 1 down and only part of wave 2 back up. 

Keep in mind that I am not the only one who knows how EW rules work.   They are programmed into every financial institution's trading servers on the planet. Supercomputers are analyzing the data in real time (Wall St is one of the biggest consumers of servers out there).  If this breaks back down into that channel, it will be the first confirmation that this is in fact an ending diagonal.  If you see the chart gap back down into that channel then it really is time to get your money out of the markets (or start going short if you have the stones).


Here is my count of that first wave down.  If this is right then probably in the AM that C of 2 will complete and then we should see some rather dramatic selling begin.


I know this is a lot for people to swallow but please keep in mind:
  • optimistic sentiment is at an extreme in many areas, some of which have not been this extreme for 27 years.
  • margin debt is at record highs.
  • debt is the engine of the debt Ponzi and debt based consumption is a liberal trait.
  • Liberalism has been getting whacked day after day after day of late.  The worm has really turned.  As liberalism declines, credit will decline.  As credit declines, so will the debt fueled stock markets.
    • California legally rules that teacher tenure, that most liberal aspect of "life owes me a living" academia not only to be wrong and bad, but to be a violation of student's rights.  Put a bullet in the head of tenure in CA, it's done.  It will spread because it's a way to get those older higher salaries off the books (which is why it was REALLY done).
    •  Tea Party Dave Brat knee capped GOP darling (but complete RINO) Eric Cantor in the polls.  Cantor immediately had to step down as house majority leader.  Talk about sending signals to politicians!!!  If you call yourself republican, you better care about debts, deficits, the constitution and free markets or you will be Cantorized.
  • Boomers got the scare of their lifetimes from 2007-2009 when markets collapsed 50%.  They will be much quicker to bail in the face of market weakness than before.
  • Market volume has collapsed over the past few years, and that's even after high frequency traders have been in play.
  • I could go on and on.  My point is that this topping is about much more than just the chart.  The herd is simply tired of the liberal agenda and that includes RINOs  (Rebublican In Name Only) which I think might also be called closet liberals.

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