Sunday, June 15, 2014

Per reader comment, BA gets the "Falling Skies" treatment as it breaks down the lower rail

In this post I correctly modeled a breakdown in the shares of Boeing Aerospace.  Since then it has broken down both the top and bottom rails of the diagonal as seen in the current chart model below.


This is a very typical ending diagonal breakdown confirmation.  Wave 1 down from the peak of the throw over paused for a day at the top rail and tipped back up in to wave 2 which was a vee type retracement.  Then wave 3 gapped down and crushed the support of the upper rail.  Wave 3 petered out near the bottom of the channel and then you can see the wave 4 triangle clearly formed.  We could have predicted a sideways wave 4 because of alternation with wave 2.  Wave 5 took out the lower rail.  That is perfect confirmation.  Those 5 waves down taken as a group can be labeled 1 down (even though I didn't label it).

Now an inclining double bottom has formed and it will likely test the lower rail from below.  That will be wave 2 up.  The odds are very, very high that it will fail that test and then be rejected back down into a 3rd wave.  That 3rd wave should be strong enough to send a message to the markets.  BA will not be plummeting by itself.  Others will join it.  When they all begin to show across the board weakness, the signal will be sent to the herd far and wide and fear will replace complacency.  That is when the DJIA and S+P will begin to show real weakness.

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