Friday, June 20, 2014

Super critical point in the progress of the market turn...

A higher high than that of the 9th kills the ending diagonal model but this is starting to look like the  C wave of 2 is an ending diagonal that terminated mid channel.   Just a few points more and the longs can extend the rally but if they get stopped and turned down here then it become an ugly double top.

Interestingly, TVIX is not going down in this move up by the broader indices... That's bearish non-confirmation.



This has to resolve itself one way or the other today and probably within the next  couple minutes by the look of that ending diagonal forming mid channel!  A break down of the triangle followed by a break of the lower channel with gusto might just seal the deal.  This bull is tired!  JNUG is already red as modeled yesterday (I bought JDST at the open).  Now just waiting to see if I can get back into TVIX right now but that will require the DJIA to reverse and go red at this point without breaking the June 9th high.


2 comments:

Chance_Nation said...

Captain,

Wow, that DJIA high is being seriously flirted with (11:00 AM Eastern). I'm half convinced that they're going to try and break 17000 even if they have to throw the kitchen sink at it.

Cheers!

Chance

The Captain said...

Options expiration gave them exactly the cover they needed to push it to a higher high (which I was clearly worried about in a recent blog post). Now that we are past that we need to get a new count that makes sense.

In any case, breadth of this rally was pitiful and the chart was struggling.

Still, the bull is not dead and even a weak bull can gore the shorts so I'm out of TVIX until I see good reason to be back in. A big AM gap down, or a big rally that reversed it intraday and then closed down hard would be an excellent indicator.

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