Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Double talk and misdirection from Goldman Sachs.

If you wonder how people become so confused about what's really going on, look no further than the main stream media which rarely if ever make money but which the likes of globalist Rubert Murdoch continually invest in for some reason.  By spending their money on these businesses, globalists are investing not in news producers but in control mechanisms.  By mixing a little bit of truthy sounding stuff in with a bunch of complete bullshit, they sway people's thinking without the people even knowing it.  After hearing this shit several times it begins to flow out the mouths of people who lack well honed critical thinking skills (which is, sadly, the majority of any population).

In today's story, Goldman Sachs is out explaining why Target and Wal-Mart are now in "slow decline".  Of course the article conflicts with itself and jumps around a lot in order to send a message without actually proving anything.  Their overarching claim is that "The heyday of big box discount retailers is over.".     OK, I'll bite.  Let's see how they defend this statement.  Of course they cannot defend it with logic so the first statement is just a shoot from the hip guestimate of what is going on: "consumers appear more focused  on some combination of value and convenience".  Yeah, that's it.  Wal-Mart that is open 24/7 and which carries everything from food to paint to hardware to clothing to guns to tires and batteries, etc. is no longer convenient.  Oh, and Wal-Mart doesn't have value prices now.  BULLSHIT!  The last big screen I bought came from Wal-Mart because it was $100 lower than everyone else.  It is asinine to imply like that  Wal-Mart has no value prices.

Then they shift gears because you see, it's the online retailers like Amazon with free shipping that is eating Wally's lunch.  That's the ticket, man, that's value and convenience for you.  Of course, the "analyst" simply overlooks the fact that AMZN is losing money each quarter now.  So again, BULLSHIT!  Business has not just shifted from Wally World to online AMZN.  Both are hurting.  And it'snot just Wal-Mart.  Both Wal-Mart and Target have recently shot their CEOs.

OK, then comes another broad statement completely not supported by any data, "Dollar stores, drug stores, and warehouse clubs "are taking share from broad-assortment retailers".  Even if true (which they conveniently provide no data or links to support), how does that wash against their main theme that it's about convenience and value?  Dollar stores suck relative to Wal-Mart.  They are not open 24/7 and, like Ross clothing stores, they carry only leftovers and closeouts.  You never know if they will have what you want.  Maybe there is some value there but that is the polar opposite of convenience.  I have been to dollar stores about twice in my life, never finding what I was looking for.  Wal-Mart always has the goods.  That is convenience.

OK, now time for yet another off-theme tangent by the Goldman Sach's jerks: "Meanwhile, drugstores like CVS and Walgreens have spent years expanding their assortments to include groceries, high-end cosmetics, clothing, and accessories."  CVS has convenience but zero value.  They are way overpriced on everything.  I never go there unless I need a specialty item or a prescription.  So again, the truthy sounding statement of "combined quality and value" is not borne out by facts.

Then another jump to talk about costco: "Costco's strategy of very low mark-ups and quality over quantity also appeals to consumers today."  Quality over quantity??? Really?  You have to buy a value pack at costco in order to get any pricing break.  Besides didn't they say earlier that "The heyday of big box discount retailers is over"???  Costco is the poster child for that sector!  So how can it be kicking ass on wally world and target when its very business mode is "over"??  Can you see the blatant double talk and wild contradictions?

OK, but now in their infinite wisdumb, Goldman analysts will tell us the secret to Wal-mart and Target's recovery: "To improve business, Goldman says, these retail behemoths need to adapt to accommodate changing consumer habits.  That includes investing in e-commerce and smaller stores, such as Wal-Mart's Neighborhood Market concept."  Gawd, this is ridiculous.  Don't they know that Wal-Mart has had an online store with free shipping to your local Wal-Mart?  This has been around for a few years now.  And nice of Goldman to say that Wal-Mart should create smaller stores like the ones they are already doing with their Neighborhood Markets.  Gee Goldman, for all that sage insight and advice, can we pay you a big fee of some kind? 

So let me net it out: ALL retailers are struggling.  Wal-Mart, Target, Amazon, Whole Foods, you name it.  You can't always tell by their stock charts because not all companies are very honest in their reporting.   They make things look far better than they really are in order to goose the share price.  IF you want to know which are which, review the terms of the CEO's compensation package.  If there is a strong focus on getting paid only if the share price goes up, expect share price to go up regardless of the underlying fundamentals.

And now I will repeat why all retailers are struggling but first I will tell you what is NOT causing it:
  • It is not caused by some major mass paradigm shift towards some imaginary nirvana of convenience and value.  Wal-Mart is already about as close to that as you can get and so is Amazon and both are under duress right now.
  • It is not caused by not understanding customer buying habits.  These companies know what customers are thinking before the customers do.  That is the benefit of big data and both of these companies are big into big data.
  • It is not because once in a blue moon something is not in stock.  Both Amazon and Wal-Mart are generally excellent about having what you need when you need it.  
  • Why is GE's IPO not going off at the expected price?  Why is Coke falling like a $2 hooker on payday?  Why is Boeing flying into the ground?  Do they all need more convenience and value too?  Do they all need new marketing slogans and catchy jingles?
  The Goldman Sachs view is full of shit because the analysts suffer from head up ass syndrome.  There is one, and only one, thing that cuts across all industries at the same time: credit deflation.  That and that alone is to blame for the collapsing sales.  As the credit portion of the money supply continues to collapse, the speed of collapse will accelerate and we will begin to hear about "contagion".  There is no real contagion, there is only mass insolvency which has been papered over for a long time.  It will come home to roost and then we'll see if some catchy marketing jingle reignites the will of the consumer to consume even more on debt.  The debt Ponzi is in the collapse phase, Goldman.  Get it right or shut the fvck up.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

You take Goldman Sachs too seriously. They're just declaring that Walmart and Target are declining companies to startle the herd in the direction they want and short those stocks for some filthy profit.

The Captain said...

I think my post proved that I don't take them seriously at all. The sheeple do but I think GS make more off screwing their own patsies, errrr, clients than they do in the markets.

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