Friday, November 28, 2014

GLD inflection point seems to be resolving downward

Gold still seems to be trading like a commodity because the news that OPEC will not curtail production in order to prop prices up seems to have kicked gold over night.  GLD is down 1.75% in Friday's pre-trade which seems to resolve the question I was having about JNUG in this post.  Now you know why I preferred to hold TVIX overnight than JNUG.  Of course, I expressed reservations about the gld chart here even though it was still going up.   We should wait for Friday's close before passing judgement but it is starting to look like Avi's count is better than EWIs this time.

Note: I stand by what I said before that most people should not try to trade this volatility.  They should just dollar cost average into something golden.   People should not delude themselves that they will catch the absolute bottom or top on anything.  It is very rare even for the best wave counters to be able to do so because the markets are semi chaotic, just like the herds roaming the plains of Africa.  I have caught the exact tops and bottoms a few times but also missed enough times to make me second guess my count until there is a strong confirmation in place.  Of course if you wait for that to buy then most of the profits are already had by someone else willing to take more risk than you.  Nobody said it would be either assured or easy.  In fact, quite the contrary (Genesis 3:19).

For the record, this could just be the C of 2 wave.  It would really throw the gold shorts to see it go down like this in sympathy with oil only to reverse and go to a new high.  Out of respect for this potential, I will probably pick up some JNUG today and then hold it with pretty tight stops.

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