Wednesday, January 28, 2015

[$COMPX] update

While we have first confirmation of HT breakdown, nothing is confirmed yet.  So we need a model, a straw man if you will to work with so that as the real wave roll in we either recognize them in our model or we get unexpected real time behavior and it leads us to be cautious.

And so I offer my current model on $COMPX.  The main feature here is that we are in the middle of the 3rd wave right now which I model as having begun at the top of the pink rectangle and will likely continue until the bottom of it so that pink 3 (a 3rd of 3rd) will have spanned the entire channel in one fell swoop.

A move back above the bottom of pink 1 breaks this model and means an immediate rethink is required. Additionally, any move back above red 1 should be treated with suspicion right here because this model says we are in 3rd of 3rd of 3rd and there should be no time for any fooling around under these circumstances.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Cap'n,

So, it looks like this model was broken today, surpassing not only red 1, but pink 1 as well.
Sometimes, I feel like I'm pissing into the wind. This is one of those times.
For your entertainment and would like your commentary, the latest from zerohedge...
Buy the Dip
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-29/janet-yellen-saves-day-stocks-soar-after-fed-chairman-tells-democrats-btfd

Steven B.

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