Wednesday, January 14, 2015

[GE] update

Backlink. I model GE as having completed 1 of 3 down.   The model is below.  It suggests one more backtest of that long term support/resistance line from below before the herd gives up on this POS stock.  Once that test fails I believe that the selling algos will have little choice but to market sell and get the Hell out of GE shares as quickly as possible else be left holding the empty bag on a company whose Altman zscore indicates a dangerous possibility of going BK within 2 years.  I've said it before and I am one of the few you will ever hear saying it this early but I believe GE will be the next AIG.  Both are nothing but hyper leveraged shadow banks which were effectively borrowing short and lending long. 


GE is little more than a massive vendor finance scam.  Anyone can make "sales" if their customers don't actually have to pay for the goods but can rather get a loan from the "seller" in order to "buy" the stuff on debt.  When it gets into financial trouble, and it will do so as soon as the liquidity gets tight again, there will be calls for government to save it.  But this time with the new conservative congress I bet that it is not saved.  They will try to ease it down gently but I think the political will to spend taxpayer "money" (really just more unkeepable promises to pay money that is) is far less than it was in 2007-2009.  The people figured out that when government picks winners and losers, the people of the middle class have to legally change their names to Mark and Patsy.

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