Wednesday, January 28, 2015

[RSX]/[RUSL] update

Backlink.
I'm beginning to wonder greatly if I got the count on RSX/RUSL wrong.  The jury is still out on this but I do not like the fact that of late RSX has created what looks very much like it could turn into a 4th wave HT.  A break below the lower orange rail would be a clear sell signal.  It will probably out itself very soon, perhaps even as soon as tomorrow.

If it goes down then the resulting wave might just be 3 of 5 and not the full 5 down off of blue 4.  Still the bounce should be very trade-able a-b-c, good for a move back up to red 4 ish.  If RSX tanked to $10 then rebounded to the level of the prior 4th @ $15 that would be a 50% score and of course RUSL would be higher, over 100%.  Just be careful that you don't go down with the ship!   Don your life vest and jump overboard the second that support is broken if you want to survive this and to have all your cash for when the chart actually does support a bigger move up.  I myself would not touch RSX until it puts in a higher high than what I have marked as red 4.  If you already have a position that you don't want to leave then feel free to hang until until the top and bottom rail of the HT break down but after that you have to sell.


A word to the wise: it is easy to fall in love with an idea, a dream, a perception.  We humans are particularly adept at deluding ourselves.  There is one basic rule of trading IMO and it is don't lose money (or at least make the minimization of losses your priority over all else).  These stock charts are nothing more than wave continuum with different frequencies and amplitudes and wave structures.  Forget about the underlying asset if you can (I know, it's difficult) because it tends to lead you to buying into a "fundamentals story" which might be entertaining but whose veracity is unknown and unknowable.  So I myself tell these stories sometimes but it is always for the purpose of financial entertainment.  The charts, and the charts alone, are my only real market timing tool.

1 comment:

Chance_Nation said...

Great post Captain. I'm wary of RUSL at the moment since as you said before it is somewhat of a proxy for oil futures. Although rough as they are my models for USO look like there might be more pain in its future...

Cheers!

Chance

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