Monday, May 11, 2015

[$TNX.X] update

At the backlink I provided the model below.



Sorry for cutting corners on some of the new models (i.e. no labeling) but my new job is going to consume my bandwidth for some time to come.  In any case the red HT above is short hand for "wave 4".  So while actual wave 4 pulled lower per below (instead of forming the common HT), I think we are done or nearly done with green 1 as numbered above.  The green lines below were drawn by me on Monday.  As you can see, I expected a gap and we got one. 

Bottom line, this should likely pull back a-b-c to 21ish and then gap up hard if this model is correct.  If this happens, it should spook the markets into realizing that Yellen is no longer in control of the markets via her brainwashing.  This is known as losing control of the bond market.  If that happens, heavily margined traders are going to have to sell because their once cheap margin expense will begin to eat their nonexistent profits alive in a sideways to down market.  Selling will beget selling.  The virtuous cycle that is the pump becomes the "panic" and the dump.

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