Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Avi vs EWI on [S+P500] [UVXY]

EWI's model indicates that a major crash is beginning.  Avi is out today reinforcing his belief that the recent pullback is really just C of 4 of an ongoing bull market.  He's looking for the S+P to find support in the 2038-2056 range before taking off into a higher high.  Avi's model would probably peak later in Q3 with wave 5 at which time he would be looking for a major a-b-c pullback. 

So here we have two very good wave counters, each with a completely different count which would drive completely different trading choices.  At some point one of them will throw in the towel and flip over to the other's view but this is a good reason why I drive like to drive for show and putt for dough.

Per yesterday's UVXY post, I took profits right near the peak of the trade because that's when I counted 5 up complete.   Today we got the big 10% dip at the open right down to the 38.2 fib where my limit buy order was just sitting there to be filled @ $40.50  - I hadn't even woken up by then!  Thanks again to Mr. R.N. Elliott.  I rode out the first vee retracement to 42 but after the breakout I pushed my stops to $45 because if we are working on a 3rd or C wave, it should not be fooling around.  It should power higher without delay.  But if I am off by a wave then I will be protected from any significant pullback.  This stop is not arbitrary!  It is driven by the EW rule that wave 4 cannot go back into the range of 1.  So if we are working on 3 of 3 or 3 of C then the next move should be a 4th which should not trigger my stop.  If it does, my count was wrong and I am protected from this error.  I'll keep bumping my stops, locking in more and more profit in this trade while reducing my risk to downside.

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