Monday, June 22, 2015

[$DJT] update

In the backlink I was looking at the weak performance the transports while cautioning that it could turn into E of 4. 

The recent chart snapshot suggests that DJT might just be doing this.  As you can see, there is a triple bottom in place there and the chart is now attempting to break back up into the HT channel.  If this chart breaks out of that top rail it is a pretty good sign that bears need to go back into hibernation for another couple of months.  This transport non-confirmation was what was fueling a growing bearishness but if it breaks out and confirms that wave 5 is in progress, UVXY is likely going to feel a good deal more pain.

Don't fight the ticker folks.  It's great to have a long term view of something or some kind of gambling thesis but the wave count can never be intelligently ignored.  I am as long term bearish as the biggest bears out there but I also know that con games can go on much longer than anyone would have thought.  This last minute "save" of the Greek tragedy is of course yet another ploy in a seemingly unending series of sad farcical theatrics.  Yes I still talk to people every day who I would otherwise gauge to be intelligent and they still believe it is possible for Greece to avoid BK.  Extend and pretend is alive and well until it isn't.

In any case, this breakout has not happened yet so I'm on the UVXY sidelines waiting for something concrete to appear in the charts.  It is still possible that this attempted break back into the channel will be rejected and that would be bearish indeed.

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