Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Today's [UVXY] selloff aligns with model

The bulls are just getting completely used to dominating the markets right now and I think it speaks to a coming sell off that will be greater than most people expect.  Still, don't fight the ticker, right? 

In the backlink on UVXY I correctly modeled the little rally and then took profits before today's collapse.  The model from that post is below and it modeled the 3rd wave down to find support in the $37 region.



Today's action is captured below and it seems to be closely tracking the model this time.  My wx theory says that this was probably the bottom of wave 3 with an AM bounce in UVXY tomorrow and then more selling into the close to complete the motive wave.  More traditional EWers might conclude that we have already seen 5 down and now the big reversal will happen.  Needless to say I will be watching this very closely and will be looking for an entry point in the $36 region should I be so fortunate to see it.

While today's selloff was pretty big in percentage terms, it occurred on falling volume and that is historically an indicator that something is about to change.


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