Wednesday, July 15, 2015

[USLV] update

In the backlink I expected a likely pullback to the level of the 38.2 fib followed by a higher high.  The model given there is reproduced below.



Below is the current snapshot and I think 4 of C has played out so they get one more sell off into the open and then reverse upward before 10am.  Everything since the peak of the 10th has a corrective vibe to it.   What will be interesting will be to see where this peters out.  Will it head to the $16-$18
range and then turn down hard for Avi's final blowout bottom where GLD hits $95-105 (say $100 for now) OR is the bottom already in and we move up big time from here?

Nobody knows because the herd hasn't even decided yet.  Does a flock of birds or a school of fish know in advance where it will suddenly reverse directions?  Of course not and no bird or fish in the group knows the fundamental reason behind the reversal.  Some standing far enough back who had access to all variables could do this but certainly nobody in the herd can do it.  But within the herd there are only models and odds.  If this is sounding a bit like what you might hear in a modern physics course, perhaps its because the two topics are quite related even though in a non-obvious way.

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