Tuesday, August 25, 2015

[RUSL] update

In the backlink I used some basic technical analysis as well as my wave count to finally justify me picking up some of the shares again.  Needless to say, tt's been quite some time since I have seen an entry point that made sense.  Not that making sense is always the same as making money but when something makes EW sense you are at least in control of your destiny; emotions are purposefully left out of the equation.

New readers who want to get potentially interesting insight into some of the concepts surrounding the Elliott wave principle as well as the thought processes of an experienced EW trader can just keep clicking the backlinks. This will show you how the possibilities morph somewhat as the wave count progresses.  It will show you how use of EW in trading is about improving odds of predicting the herd's next move as opposed to having a crystal ball. 

Most importantly, it will show you how having an EW model tells you very quickly when the model is wrong.  There is no concept for the disciplined EW trader of holding onto a trade gone bad and hoping it will come back to you.  When a sell trigger is crossed per your model, you sell first and then you look for a new entry point if that's what you want to do.  But there is no riding a bad trade down with the EW trader because your stops go in right after you buy.  I cannot begin to tell new EW traders how helpful it is to be able to study something like this.  This is how you move from simply understanding the EW rules to being able to trade effectively and profitably using them.

In any case, RUSL popped 15% at the open.  Since this would be early in the turn, I placed my first stop rather tight knowing that wave 2 in the direction of the new trend can be a deep vee.  I was stopped out at $12.60.  I checked on it at end of day but was not compelled to buy back in even though it was down from my sell point.  On the plus side, I could count 5 waves down into that last low.  Also, this could have broken the lower red support into the close but it didn't.  At least not yet.  Also on the plus side, the gap was filled but not overshot.

On the down side I don't see anything that counts motively yet.  Yes, it could count blue 1 blue 2 as shown.  If so, then we should see blue 3 take off as shown and it will be a good buy indication.  It could also turn out that the sharp gap down bottom was a 3rd wave and this 3 wave stuff could be forming a HT.  In any case I decided not to buy into this until I get some more data.  Cash is an investment too....

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