Friday, October 23, 2015

[JNUG] update

At the backlink I was looking for a B wave to complete, possibly in the form of a HT per below.  While all predictions are odds based and thus carry an implicit "?", I fairly uncharacteristically chose to be explicit about it on the d and e waves of this model.  The reason is that it just didn't have the right look and in this case that meant that the angles of the upper and lower rails were too severe.  I normally like to see a max of 15 degrees either side of the horizontal for this kind of thing and in fact sub 10 degree is considered best.  But in this case it was more like 25+ degrees.  However, I've also noted in the past that if I see the kind of action to the left that some kind of HT will eventually likely result at a higher degree of abstraction. 




In the case of the current JNUG chart, I think that including the extended trade data (see chart below) shows us what the above model above was missing.  This chart has a much better HT look.  I got stopped out of JDST when JNUG crossed the cyan line and then I received an email alert when the upper rail was breached so so I bought it back and in fact doubled down as soon as it fell back into the channel.  I don't have to watch this like a hawk.  Stops and email alerts are the greatest things since sliced bread and stick butter respectively.  I've already put my stops in on my new JDST position to be 1 penny higher than red E. 

If I'm right  about this model, we are being presented with a fantastic swing trading opportunity in the JNUG and JDST opposing tickers here.  Again, there are no guarantees and the only thing we should ever expect from any trading system is increased odds but the odds are good that we have hit or are very near hitting the E of B wave which marks the half way point for the move down from $63 JNUG to $37.75 JNUG. 

Even more exciting is that if this pattern holds then we already know pretty closely where the next turn should come (red circle in the model above).  So if we get 5 waves down into the lower rail then we know to bail out of JDST and then to go extra long JNUG for the move back up to $65-$66.  That is a whole lotta forward looking speculation in terms of price percentage movement but if the model holds then just a few trades can make my readers Sirius Bank© (i.e. astronomical short term returns).

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hello Captain,

Could you have a quick look at GDXJ, I would have expected for it to be just like JNUG, but instead c and d seem to be missing, would you count it as ABC up instead? If so isn't it still missing a few waves up in C, 4 of 3 of C?

Also looking at GLDX from Aug.26, isn't wave 5 missing if it is a C, too me it looks more like 1-2 3-4, A being on Aug 20th. If on the other hand that zigzag on Oct. 12th is 3-4 than C is complete, but I wonder if you have a trick or advice on how to spot those small "stealthy" 3-4 waves which always seem to trick me.

many thanks,
L.

P.S.: A few weeks ago I mentioned that the liberal party might win here in Canada, guess what, not only they did, but with a majority that gives them full control with no opposition... more government, more deficit spending, more taxes, more housing bubble...I wonder if we don t have one more wave up in central planing...

The Captain said...

L,
There seems to be data missing from TDameritrade. I'll try to remember to have a look later in the weekend when hopefully the gaps in the data have been resolved.

What is gldx? gld? gdx?

As for liberals, yes, it is possible that what I was tracking was a major peak of liberalism but not THE peak. I have the feeling that THE peak only occurs after a collapse is in the books. For example, Iceland did not install conservative gov't before the massive collapse, only afterward. The people believe the academics right off the cliff. It is also possible that each place will be in a different part of the wave. So your liberal win could just be a pullback from a larger conservative move. In fact what would really prove that conservatism is taking over would be if your new liberal gov began doing things that were decidedly conservative in nature.

Anonymous said...

GLDX: Gold Explorers ETF

it bottomed in July vs HUI in Sept., usually it fallows the general MM market but in September, as miners were dumped explorers were being bought...
L.

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=GLDX&style=technical&template=&p=I&d=M&im=10&sd=12%2F11%2F2012&ed=06%2F30%2F2017&size=L&log=0&t=LINE&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&crosshairsOn=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=06%2F30%2F2017#jump

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=GLDX&style=technical&template=&p=I&d=M&im=15&sd=07%2F20%2F2015&ed=10%2F24%2F2015&size=L&log=0&t=LINE&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&crosshairsOn=1&o1=%24HUI&a1=on&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=10%2F24%2F2015#jump

The Captain said...

OK I see GLDX now. Seems to have bottomed very near my commodities bottoming call and is trading in line with silver right now. Pretty soon now we will find out if this has one more wave down per Avi or gold is going to 1300-1350 per EWI.

The Captain said...

L I looked at GDXJ and JNUG today and the difference in charts I think is simply the time bleed in JNUG since it is options based. When M+M are moving up quickly there is nothing like being in JNUG but when moving sideways JNUG will bleed. Over the course of a a couple years, GDXJ will be far higher than JNUG because of time value loss. I think you know that JNUG is a trading vehicle not an investment thesis...

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