Wednesday, October 21, 2015

[S+P500] update

From the backlink I provided the model below.  It allowed for a rapid peak into the 2036 range in order to completely fill the gap and also so that blue 5 would be the same length as blue 1.



Per below, the high of day was 2039, just a couple points above where I was modeling.  It also came within pennies of hitting that top rail before reversing.  I count the pattern within the pink rails as a running triangle.




Zooming out, something has got to give soon.  Many well known EW sites like Caldero have already thrown in the bear towel and are calling this the start of intermediate 3 of wave 5 up (meaning the recent double bottom was wave 4.  They may well be right but it just seems to me that this struggled to get above the first support shown below and then put in what is so far to me a unicorn horn.  Those mark tops in my experience.  But other EWers will laugh at that notion just as they would laugh at WX. 

After all, it should really take a grand master Elliotician to begin adding to RN Elliott's work in any way.  Even Prechter dares not go there.  So yes, I get that it's a bit presumptuous on my part.  But the only way to advance anything is to not be afraid to test it and then accept the resulting data as fact.  So here is another test for the unicorn horn and I must say, it doesn't look good for me at the time of this writing b/c S+P futures are up 6 points.  That would gap above the top rail and open the door for more gains.  That's also not good for me since I'm holding UVXY based on the resistance and the count that I have.  Note that the top red rail in the model above is the top green rail in the model below.  So the chart kissed that rail yesterday and then backed down.  If it breaks out that rail I'm dumping UVXY quickly and asking questions later.

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