Tuesday, October 27, 2015

[S+P500] update

The S+P blew through the gap fill pointed out in the backlink thus trashing EWI's 4th wave thesis (which I had become suspicious of several days before).  After breaking out of that there was essentially no resistance until the current level whose resistance is a confluence of center channel and testing broken support from below.

This whole thing still smacks corrective and my best count is that it is an expanded flat 2nd wave per below.  I think the herd will react to the fed's results on Wed and I think there is growing pressure on the fed to do something about growing income inequality (i.e. rate hike).  Many have brushed this off as impossible to happen but someone has to decide whether the markets get a haircut OR the US slowly begins to turn into some 3rd world shithole with rampant theft and murder in the streets on a daily basis because if the poor are pushed down too long that is what is going to result. 

I have not forgotten that Yellen was the first fed chief ever to have even mentioned the topic of income inequality so we cannot write off the possibility of a small rate hike like 1/8th percent just to see what jabbing the bear results in.  Since Yellen did nothing to result in the recent market sell off, she cannot say to have been tested by the markets yet.  That usually comes within 6 months of taking office so she is overdue.


Additionally, if this was going to break through center channel by now I don't think it would be so extended already in this wave.  More likely it would have tested center, pulled back for a running start and then smashed through.  These markets are low volume, relatively thinly traded.  It's not the kind of thing that usually has the umpf to pull off a Bruce Lee 1" punch if you know what I mean.

We should also be prepared for the possibility that we are forming a large 4th wave HT with the sudden dip of Aug being A, current rise being B, next dip being C and so on.

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