Tuesday, October 13, 2015

[UVXY] update

At the backlink I was open to the possibility of support at a gap fill at the $42 level but the clear message was that either a bottom must occur immediately or it was a sell signal.  No bottom occurred and thus the sell signal triggered immediately the next day.

I actually bought UVXY on two different occasions with the second purchase being a double down into Monday's close.  Today I was able to ride it up for an average profit between the two tranches (the first partial position was underwater for a short time and the 2nd tranche was underwater only in the extended trade on Monday, it was green in the pretrade on Tues AM).  But I dumped the entire position into the afternoon and went bottom fishing on JNUG and score a couple bucks on it into today's close selling just above $50 because it lacked the strength that I was looking for if wave 3 up was already starting.  So now I'm in a lot of cash and looking to buy the dip on UVXY as well as JNUG.

Below is the model I would like to see for UVXY.   The potential percentage gains here are significant and it suggests that the selling in the DJIA should elicit some nice fear over the next month.  This could only likely be generated by a lower low than the recent flash crash of August.

UVXY is a candidate for an inverted owl on the log scale.

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