Wednesday, January 6, 2016

[DJIA] update

I tried to give DJIA a break in the backlink assigning a 52% odds to blue vs 48 to red but the trading action quickly reversed those labels so that blue seen below is now primary.



Current model is below.  We are getting near where we would want to see a 3rd wave gap down so I modeled one in there.  Of course, China markets went limit down within 14 minutes of the open of trading so you can see that there is clear panic over there, just what one should expect from the C wave which I modeled in FXI.  This is essentially a run on the Chinese markets and it should have global implications.  Now is a good time to be very careful if you own a lot of "buy and hold" stocks.  I would worry about pretty much everything (until commodities signal the bottom is in).

Lots of people think that Yellen will rescind her quarter point hike in the wake of market turbulence.  IF she does that, go big into something golden.

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