Friday, January 22, 2016

[DRYS] closes up 50%.

The backlink was entitled "[DRYS] hits target price and wave count." and the model below was provided.



While the chart did have one small wave lower to go (which is now reconciled with the detailed count below), the important thing is that despite oil prices actually hitting a new low DRYS in fact put in the expected inclining double bottom by not creating a new low.  That is bullish divergence right where the EW count expects it to occur.  It does not guarantee anything but it is some compelling evidence that the model is perhaps correct.



I also want to highlight on this chart a proprietary indicator of mine which I have mentioned in the past.  I call them pointers and they are circled in red below.  The typical thing we should have seen in that circle would be a DDT (Declining Double Top).  Instead, we got a higher high which then broke down to put in a higher low.  Higher lows and higher highs are the basis of all up trends and that is what the pointers are suggesting is in play.

Folks, keep in mind that DRYS is now completely out of the dry bulk shipping business.  It is now completely into the oil patch through a massive stake in Ocean Rig as well as direct recent ownership of a small fleet of oil service ships.  That makes DRYS' stock price completely tied to the price of oil which makes this stock essentially a non-expiring call on the price of oil and my models indicate that the next stop for oil is $55-$60 per bbl, not $20, not $10 . 

DRYS is now in the process of doing a reverse split so the BK that all the shorts hoped for is not imminent.  No company goes through the expense of reverse split if BK is imminent!  Apparently I am not the only one who thinks this way given the sudden attention to this stock over the past several weeks.



Having said that, my primary model is now that DRYS will bounce to at least the 38.2 fib.  There are other options including the potential that the recent bottom was really only the 3rd of 5 and that we are currently working on an HT 4th but that is not my primary count for now.  The thing to keep in mind for all oil services is that the oil wave count suggests much higher prices are coming in 2016 and that jibes with the historical extreme in negativism which exists in this sector.  I'm still marveling at the fact that Ocean Rig is trading for 5 percent of book value recently.  It would be one thing if they were bleeding cash but they have been making money and paying off debt and buying back shares from DRYS.  The value in many oil plays has now become generational as in you see it only once in a generation.

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