Friday, January 29, 2016

[RUSL] update

At the backlink I was calling for more selling but did not build an extended 5th into the model.  Thus the dip price was below my target of 9.20 by a size-able percentage.  The shape of the decline also calls into question whether that was a 5th.  In fact, the wedge aspect of it is compelling me to call it blue w3 at this point.

Since that bottom we have seen 3 waves up which I label to be blue 4.  It is possible that 5 of C of blue 5 still has a bit more upside but RUSL longs should now be concerned that this 3 wave move was only a correction and that one more big swoon is in the cards before the big run up of oil begins.  Green C is now nearly equal to green A and C=A is often the ending point for C.

It will be interesting to see if this next wave down goes to a lower low or if it is expressed as a failed 5th.  The argument for failed 5th this time is that the falling blue line into blue 5 is the same length as blue 1 and 5 often = 1 when 3 is extended.

This could also morph into a more sideways move such as HT so it will be important to count the waves down during the next modeled sell off, assuming of course that the model below will turn out to be correct.

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