Sunday, January 24, 2016

[VNR] update

At the backlink I provided several possible models for the finishing of what I was counting as a 4th wave and then termination of the 5th of the current wave.  4ths are often the trickiest waves which is why if you ever get a real HT you should see it as a gift.

In any case, one of the models from the backlink is below.  It suggested a dip to perhaps the 1.90 range to finish this wave.



Instead, the trap door opened and outright panic selling sucked this thing down to $1.29 for a very short time before skyrocketing up to $2.19 again. 




The severity of this unicorn tail could mean it was only 5 of 3 but for now I am counting it as if the 5th wave is in and a large rally for oil has begun.  If this turns out not to be the case then for sure buy the big dips because a big rally in oil is coming soon, even if soon starts 1-2 weeks from now.  In the very near term it looks like the model below.  Blue C could be deep vee as well so BOLO that possibility.  For the record I think it will be a flat correction , 3-3-5 into green 2.



I think this is also a good time to review the model from my first post on VNR since the model I gave in that post, which is reproduced below, played out fairly closely.








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