Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Welcome to deflation

I've written many times about how people overpay for marketing bullshit like fancy packaging and commercials and branding.  I've also made it clear that this lux behavior is only possible in an economy which is artificially supported by debt.  Nobody needs the fancy brand in order to live and grow and prosper.  We just need good quality stuff with reasonable selection at low prices.  This is what we will return to before the credit collapse has played out.  Gone will be all the ultra fancy names that charge 10x.  Boutique will bomb. 

The latest proof point of this is called Aldi and it has Wal-Mart squarely in its sights.  You can read more about it here but the fine details don't really matter.  The direction is now set.  People will do less with less, but it will not be in proportion.  They will accept a small reduction in fanciness for a large reduction in price.  This does not mean that you will not be able to buy good stuff.  It does mean that the ridiculous prices charged for the better stuff will come way down to Earth and the companies which have been benefiting from those prices will be in serious trouble.  Shopping malls will collapse.  High end goods outlet store will disappear.  It will be pervasive.  CEOs will stop getting $200mn bonuses.  In other words, that last 3% of goodness will not receive a ridiculous exponential premium anymore.

The worm has turned.  Good luck to the ultra wealthly, they will be affected far worse than someone who never got used to that fantasy level of consumption.

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