Thursday, February 20, 2014

I will soon be liking Sony for a long term hold.

Sony (Ticker SNE) has been on the skids for years.  There is no way it will BK though, the Japanese government would not allow it to even if it were near BK (which it is not).  Below is the chart and let me tell you it looks ready to pop in a good way.  After a very, very steep decline (obviously a 3rd wave down), it began to trace out a picture perfect ending diagonal back in 2002. That formation bottomed in 2012 with a very typical throw under, then broke back up into the channel and hit the top resistance.  This is very typical 1st wave behavior coming out of an ending diagonal!!  The 1st wave does not have the power to break out.  And so a 2nd wave pull back occurs.  That 2nd wave recently hit the 61.8 percent retracement at about $15.25.  That could be the end of the pull back, but I would not chance it until the waves break through the down sloping resistance line shown in the model.

The target for this coming multiyear move is $60 and that is validated both by a move to the top of the ending diagonal as well as a move back up to the prior 4th.















































OK that is the Sony chart.  It looks very close to a break out. If you see it gap up, do not be worried, that is the BUY signal, not the "be afraid the train has already left the station" signal!! 

Now, what has been goosing Japanese stocks of late has been Abe-a-nomics.  As in Prime Minister Abe screwing his people over in the name of the corporations.  That is effectively what he is doing when he waters down the Yen as he has been doing.  By printing more fake money he rewards the big corporations in two ways.  First, it makes Japanese exports cheaper for other countries to buy and thus sales go up (hint:SNE is a massive exporter).  This sounds great for everyone, especially the economically ignorant.  After all, it helps people get jobs, right?  If corporations are selling stuff then they hire more people.  The only fly in this ointment is that the money that the workers earn buys less.  So there is more work for less pay.  Is that a great deal for the workers?  I don't think so. 

In fact, their paychecks do not go down in Yen terms.  It's just that milk, eggs, butter and fish heads go up in price by more than any inflation wage increases the workers receive.  It leads to crappy, dreary, corporate slave lives that make you want to jump off of a Foxconn manufacturing building (Yes, I know that was China but the same principle will apply to Japan once massive inflation sets in).  In fact, it leads to a situation where the people can't even afford the products that they make and they would be much better off working for themselves.

At the same time, corporations with lots of debt (usually owed to the people in the form of bonds, etc.) get to pay that debt off with devalued Yen.  So, the corporations win-win and the workers overall lose.  That is just a scam, period.

And so I present to you a chart of the Yen.  Now, to be fair, I don't follow currencies very closely, but Prechter's team does and they recently did a video showing that 5 of 1 down just completed and now the a-b-c back up should occur. I think it will move back up as shown by my blue line where it kisses the lower channel line, cannot break back up into the channel and then heads down into a 3rd wave.  That wave should take the Yen back to the level of the prior 4th wave as shown. 

So today one hundred yen trades for 0.97 USD (97 cents).  But in a few years when the 3rd wave plays out it will only fetch about 68-70 cents.  That is about a 30% reduction in the buying power of the Yen relative to the world's reserve currency (the USD).  It will result in about a 15%-20% reduction in buying power after factoring in wage increases that try to make up for inflation.

This is a big tailwind at Sony's back which will help drive their profits up.  They are also cleaning house in order to get rid of lagging units like the Sony Vaio brand.  Sony is positioning its executives for massive stock option gains based on rising share prices.  This is how the elite play it while the people sit there like idiots and watch themselves being ripped off, never knowing what hit them because they don't understand economics.

When this breaks out, tell your mom to put her cash on this one and just forget about it for a few years.  I expect the gains to be simply outstanding and they will take everyone by surprise except Elliott wave practitioners.  This is as clear a setup as we get.  After your are done collecting your gains, please take the time to thank a Japanese person for being such a patsy in this matter.  Without patsies in a scam, massive 300% gains like the kind I am talking about are very hard to come by the the markets.  For every winner there is a loser.  The value being put into the pockets of those gambling on SNE right now is coming straight out of the wages of sucker workers across Japan.  I guess that is their punishment for agreeing to be double dealt by the scam of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking.

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