Sunday, December 28, 2014

GLD quietly breaks out

There is no news on gold lately but this is when the shorts try to sneak out the back door.  The GLD chart suggests that they might have tipped their hand just now.  Black 3 bottomed all the way back in late June 2013.  The blue horizontal line has represented significant support and resistance since then.  Just recently GLD not only came back above that blue line, but did so with gusto using a gap.  That suggests near term technical strength at the very least. 

EWI is the longer term GLD bear here and even they think it is due for a B wave back up to the level of the prior 4th as shown.  Avi thinks this is the bottom of the C wave pullback and that much higher GLD will be seen in the years ahead.  I think Avi is probably right at this point based on many things including capitulation price levels and volume on the juniors. 

IF you have been watching GLD go down and down wondering where the bottom would be, this break back up into the range of black 3 is where the more careful market watchers would be buying back in.  In other words, the big fund managers do not try to catch the bottom.   They wait for the bottom to have some sort of confirmation and then they get back in.  As long as GLD holds that blue line then I think people should continue to own something golden.  The train has not left the station yet!  Go look at TRX and DRD!  Of course I'm trading this bottoming process with JNUG.

As always, buy the dip.  Wait for the dip even if it means shares go higher first.  That way you don't buy the peak and then get scared out at the bottom on the dip.  Missing out on some profit is always better than being underwater and at risk of eating a loss...

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