Saturday, December 27, 2014

TVIX update

Here is the backlink.  If you open the model chart on that page and compare it to actual below you will see that the model was reasonably correct and in fact remains intact.  The red lines coming off the bottom in that link were not meant to imply "we go up from here in a straight line forever" but rather "this is the near term bottom which will now reverse and begin to trend upwards".  Of course nothing goes straight up or straight down.  Smart traders will always use stop loss sell orders in something like this, especially if we begin to see heaviness in the chart after a big move up and especially after the completion of a long trend in which the possibility of a deep vee second is high.

By my count  we should be at or very near the low of wave 2.  I would not be surprised to see one more move down to the blue line in order to get the inclining double bottom angle into the norm but it could take off from here as well.  I'm playing this with UVXY but since my last model showing this final downward push into early Dec was done with TVIX I decided to follow through using TVIX in this post.

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