Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Time to buy [PBR] again.

In the backlink I expected one more head fake up and then a move down to the lower rail and that is what we seemed to have gotten since then as shown in the current snapshot below.

While it would be nice to see a throw under to the 61.8 fib here, I think it is just as possible for this to begin the next wave up from today's price of $7.47.  Keep in mind that this was nearly $78 back in 2008.  Wherever this bottoms, the minimum bounce likely to extend to $21 (the level of the prior 4th).  I don't know about you but a likely triple seems like a good thing to me.





The short term strategy here is clear: Buy the current price of $7.47 and then set stops at $7.40.   If stopped out, look to re-enter @ the 61.8 fib of the chart below.





Not to mention it too many times but  I did call pretty much the exact bottom on these shares in my first post ever on PBR.   Additionally, instead of just resting on my EW laurels there, I also called a sell in the $10 range which happened to be pretty close to the recent peak.  Selling then would have saved a trader from enduring an unnecessary 25% pullback.  So when I say it's time to buy again, at least I have a pretty good model to support my assertion, not just gut feel.  There is certainly an element of luck here but if you just play the odds often enough then sooner or later you are going to get lucky.

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